Friday, April 10, 2009

The starting rotation: what would you do?

Put yourself in Ron Gardenhire's shoes for a second. You manage a professional team that is beginning a potentially promising season, and you have some tough decisions to make. Some key players on your roster have been bitten by the injury bug, including your number 1 starter who you have penciled into the lineup for opening day and your number 3 hitter who has won two batting titles in the pats 3 seasons and is arguably the best defensive catcher in the game.

You are looking at the first five games on the schedule and your five starting pitchers, and trying to decide the optimal way to line those pitchers up. There are many factors to consider. For example, here is a list of where the next 5 games will be played, in the order in which they will be played:

Game 1: Indoors in the Metrodome.
Game 2: Indoors in the Metrodome, where there is no wind.
Game 3: Indoors in the Metrodome, where knuckleballer Tim Wakefield likes to pitch.
Game 4: Indoors in the Metrodome, where the Twins have publicly stated they expect knuckleballer R.A. Dickey to have success because of the lack of wind (the reason that knuckleballers love to pitch indoors).
Game 5: Outdoors in the "Windy City", so-called because there tends to be a lot of wind there, which is bad for knuckleballers and the teams for which they pitch.

Here is a list of our 5 starters while Scott Baker is on the disabled list:

Pitcher 1: not a knuckleballer.
Pitcher 2: does not throw a knuckleball.
Pitcher 3: throws a few pitches, none of them a knuckleball.
Pitcher 4: no idea how to throw a knuckleball.
Pitcher 5: throws knuckleball.

If you haven't guessed yet what to do, or what Gardenhire did, I'll leave you with the following quote from Kelly Theiser of MLB.com:

"Knuckleballer R.A. Dickey battled through five innings in his first start with the Twins, allowing three runs on four hits. With temperatures in the high 30s at first pitch and winds gusting up to 22 mph out to center field, it was less than ideal conditions for the knuckleball. "


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